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Flannery flunks again February 19, 2010

Posted by BlueGreen in Abuse, Deception, Doesnt Understand, Misrepresentation, Smear.

Bolt’s Post 19 February, 2010

Here Bolt thinks he’s countered some of Flannery’s

Ten predictions about climate change that have come true

[By the way, follow the link and the headline is actually: Ten predictions made by climate scientists that have come true (or are becoming true) – a small oversight on Bolt’s part, I’m sure.]

The predictions:

The ten biggest changes to the weather wrought by climate change

  1. Shorter winters
  2. Less runoff into dams and reservoirs in many regions of the world
  3. More violent and longer hurricanes
  4. Less chilly nights
  5. Less predictable seasonal conditions
  6. Less snow
  7. More heat waves
  8. Less rain in many regions at various seasons
  9. More severe storms in the North Sea and parts of the southern Ocean
  10. Generally warmer conditions

So what has Andrew got to counter Flannery with:

Rains now flood parts of Australia

Now, which of the 10 does that counter? Presumably Bolt is claiming 2 and 8?

I follow the link via Tim Blair to get at the story that “proves” the point and I find a link to the Sunshine Coast Daily that reports:

THERE is so much water in Sunshine Coast dams this morning that if another 100,000 people arrived tomorrow, and it did not rain for another three years, no one would go thirsty.

Rain during the past two weeks and heavy catchment downpours in the past 48 hours have filled most Coast dams to capacity and would guarantee four years’ supply for the present population of 300,000.

There has been flooding rainfall on the Sunshine Coast. So, you’d have to assume this would at least be an area of Australia that is predicted to be affected by lower rainfall. What does the IPCC say?

Precipitation is likely to decrease in southern Australia in winter and spring. Precipitation is very likely to decrease in south-western Australia in winter….Changes in rainfall in northern and central Australia are uncertain. Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase. The effect may be offset or reversed in areas of significant decrease in mean rainfall (southern Australian in winter and spring). An increase in potential evaporation is likely. Increased risk of drought in southern areas of Australia is likely.

Sunshine Coast part of south-east or south-west Australia? And even over-looking that mistake, the decrease over south-east Australia specifically refers to winter and spring.

Strike 1 against Bolt.

Bolt goes on:

…and the snow has rarely been deeper:

According to Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, last week’s Northern Hemisphere winter snow extent was the second highest on record, at 52,166,840 km2.

Bolt is talking about a single winter but climate is about longer term so let’s check longer term snow coverage for the norther hemisphere via Tamino:

The decline is much stronger for summer months than for winter months. The January numbers don’t really show any significant trend.

Cherry-picking leads to strike 2.

Bolt up to the plate again:

Hurricane activity is at a low

Follow the link and we get to Watts. No surprise there but what does Watts actually report in relation to the NH hurricane season for 2009?

2009 was the quietest year since 1997 (ACE= 41) and the 16th slowest since 1940. Interestingly, 2009 saw 1/5th of the activity of 2005, the most active ACE season on record.

So, Bolt claims “the quietest year since 1997” equates to “at a low”. Strange.

And yet still we know that even a sceptic’s analysis that Bolt linked to has shown that:

Hatton’s data analysis does actually corroborate the IPCC and concludes that:  

…there is strong evidence that the Atlantic is becoming more active in both number of hurricanes and number of major hurricanes (≥ 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale)… 

Strike 3.

Ordinarily, in the spirit of the sporting analogy, we could stop there but, let’s give Bolt some clearly much-needed additional batting practice:

He goes on to cherry-pick again via Watts:

…and record low temperatures are being set at many places in the US.

Now, you’d think that record low temperatures, if significant in the context of countering global warming, would translate to some form of signal in the global temperature series. Well, let’s even use Bolt’s global temperature analysis of choice to check on global temperature via Roy Spencer which actually indicates:

The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly soared to +0.72 deg. C in January, 2010. This is the warmest January in the 32-year satellite-based data record.

Strike 4 and Bolt is back in the dugout.



1. Broke Flannery just can’t resist another bet « Andrew Bolt's Lies, Deceptions & Misrepresentations on AGW - February 20, 2010

[…] least doesn’t try to refute the claim based on current or past cherry-picked information as he has done previously. Which is not to say that he won’t do so in the future […]

2. Warming again « Andrew Bolt's Lies, Deceptions & Misrepresentations on AGW - March 6, 2010

[…] Followed by another go at Flannery and Qld rain. Already debunked. […]

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