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Africa might actually love that warming rain February 24, 2010

Posted by BlueGreen in Deception, Doesnt Understand, Misrepresentation.

Bolt’s Post 24 February, 2010

Here Andrew Bolt claims:

Yet another climate alarmist on Jon Faine’s ABC Melbourne morning show was allowed this morning to claim, unchallenged, that global warming would cause devastating droughts in Africa.

No sooner claimed than disproved:

Bolt goes on to reproduce excerpts from an article claiming that:

Scientists are now seeing signals that the Sahara desert and surrounding regions are greening due to increasing rainfall. If sustained, these rains could revitalize drought-ravaged regions, reclaiming them for farming communities.

I have no issue with the study or indeed the claim that, should this be true, some areas of Africa might become more viable for farming but, yet again, Bolt is wrong that this is any proof against or refutation of the fact that AGW is predicted by the IPCC to cause or exacerbate drought in Africa:

All of Africa is very likely to warm during this century. The warming is very likely to be larger than the global, annual mean warming throughout the continent and in all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warming more than the moister tropics.

Annual rainfall is likely to decrease in much of Mediterranean Africa and northern Sahara, with the likelihood of a decrease in rainfall increasing as the Mediterranean coast is approached. Rainfall in southern Africa is likely to decrease in much of the winter rainfall region and on western margins. There is likely to be an increase in annual mean rainfall in East Africa. It is uncertain how rainfall in the Sahel, the Guinean Coast and the southern Sahara will evolve in this century.

What Bolt fails to acknowledge or perhaps doesn’t understand is that, the fact that climate is changing and will continue to change with increasing global temperatures, means that it creates extreme economic hardship and instability. Bolt seems to believe that it will be a snap to move agriculture, industry and even settlements and cities in pursuit of or necessitated by changing climate.

And that doesn’t take into account the lower-probability or longer-term but more severe risks associated with AGW.

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