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Gore promises the Warmist Inquisition February 28, 2010

Posted by BlueGreen in Deception, Misrepresentation, Smear.

Bolt’s Post 1 March, 2010

The first part of Andrew Bolt’s post relating to Gore is, as usual, not even worth a response.

However, the update relating to tropical storm activity, via The Australian via The Times, requires refuting. No surprise that it’s this paper that is the source of yet more misinformation and deception.

The claim is that:

RESEARCH by hurricane scientists may force the UN climate panel to retract its claims that greenhouse gas emissions have caused an increase in the number of tropical storms.

Again, let’s see what the IPCC said in relation to tropical storms in its Summary for Policymakers (my emphasis):

There is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones. {3.8}

In relation to projections for tropical storm activity, the IPCC said:

Results from embedded high-resolution models and global models, ranging in grid spacing from 100 km to 9 km, project a likely increase of peak wind intensities and notably, where analysed, increased near-storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Most recent published modelling studies investigating tropical storm frequency simulate a decrease in the overall number of storms, though there is less confidence in these projections and in the projected decrease of relatively weak storms in most basins, with an increase in the numbers of the most intense tropical cyclones.

The writer of The Times article (author’s name is not provided) says:

The IPCC added that the world could expect a big increase in such storms over the 21st century unless greenhouse gas emissions were controlled.

This is completely untrue as can be clearly seen from the IPCC excerpt above.

Then the author refers to the paper, paraphrasing it (apparently) to say:

It suggests the rise in cyclone frequency since 1995 was part of a natural cycle and that several similar previous increases have been recorded, each followed by a decline.

It draws on computer modelling to predict that the most likely impact of global warming will be to reduce the frequency of tropical storms. The research predicts a fall of up to 34 by 2100.

It does, however, suggest that when tropical storms occur they could become stronger, with average wind speeds rising by 2100.

A fall of up to 34? 34 what? Where? Per year?

And guess what? It actually turns out all the paper does (assuming that The Times author’s paraphrasing is accurate and reasonable) is confirm that the IPCC was right to say exactly what they did say: They couldn’t discern a trend in the “annual number of tropical cyclones” observed and , in the Atlantic, the intensity of tropical storms had increased. They also stated that the modelling suggests an increase in tropical storm intensity and some modelling even confirmed a decrease in the frequency of tropical storms overall.

So, the paper actually corroborates the IPCC, whilst Andrew Bolt and The Australian have again misrepresented the IPCC and deceived their readers. Again.

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